Our 2009 Predictions
　　　　
　　Roger Wiegand Dec 22 2008 1:23PM
　　　　
　 　"We think we now have enough data from both the fundamentals and technicals to make some serious forecasts and predictions for 2009. While 2008 was a nasty year when lots of things imploded, they are far from being repaired. Treasury Secretary Paulson told us this week there are no more surprises, which tells me we haven’t even discovered but a small portion of this monster derivative mess. His ripping-off of the taxpayers to the tune of $700 billion is only a warm-up. However, the larger question for traders and investors is what could happen next and when.
　　　　
　　In the following report we take the key global economic points and suggest the outcome for 2009." -Traderrog
　　　　
　 　The most important news for 2008 was the destruction of the big global banks’ net worth and their badly wounded ability to conduct normal business and make market-moving loans. Ben & Hank’s bailout only helped the bad-boy banks reliquify themselves to remain somewhat solvent and stay in business. They are doing nothing to extend credit to any business enhancing western or global economies. The 2009 result will be no significant banker lending, taking more bailout money and sweeping additional bad loans of all stripes under the banker’s rug and hiding the rest in back rooms.
　　　　
　　The largest surprise in our view was the massive disaster at insurance giant AIG. Despite numerous injections of bailout billions, AIG remains in very serious trouble hanging on by their proverbial fingernails. The 2009 result will be a surprise crash and failure of AIG frightening the world at large causing ripples of failures throughout western and Asian nations unable to conduct business without mandatory insurance policies. Most folks have no comprehension as to the monster fallout this will create. It is in our view literally immeasurable, and this is why Paulson handed them so much money.
　　　　
　　Our new president is determined to hand out $860 Billion to One Trillion dollars in a Herculean effort to literally buy a new economic recovery. While some of his ideas are noble indeed the overall plan
　　will have little effect and Great Depression II shall take hold in 2009 with crashing stock markets in May and September-October 2009. We think the worst of the worst hits in later September 2009.
　　　　
　　During the spring of next year we see:
　　　　
　 　(1) A second larger wave of residential housing mortgage failures; (2) The first big wave of auto loan failures and repossessions; (3) Over $40 billion in credit card defaults, smashing the bank lenders; (4) The first wave of commercial mortgage failures and foreclosures on shopping malls, office buildings and other commercials; (5) And finally, the grand smashing finale of CDS Credit Default Swaps originated with No margin money or down payments! We heard today the total is 500 trillion! I cannot even fathom that number. These five converging train wrecks could take the Dow from a dead cat bounce of  back to 7250, or even 6600, or 5600.
　　　　
　 　Shares traders and investors have one more solid quarter, in our view to regain some stock market losses on the forthcoming Obama Trillion Dollar handouts. We think the rising share markets will help most all sectors gain some recovery and provide the illusion the bottoms are in and new bases found. The stark reality hits home after shares peak in April or early May taking an unprecedented selling high dive scaring the wits out of Americans and the watching world.
　　　　
　　Even with these events and rising unemployment and social problems, economic observers and analysts could continue to plead the worst is over, the bottoms are in and a fine, new, shiny world of trading and investing in our bright economy lies just ahead for the fall of 2009. Then, in later September and early October, the New York, London, Tokyo and Asian markets take a monster crash. How low is low and how bad can it get? We think the Dow could end-up on November 1st, 2009 anywhere from 5,600 to a low of 3,000 or even 1,500. One guideline will be a falling overshoot of PE’s on our largest, so-called international corporations posting lows of 4 to7. Today, many of them are near 18. What does this tell us about the severity of our projections?
　　　　
　　Unemployment nationally in the USA is now touching 16%. The officially posted number is somewhere near half of that. By the fall of 2009, American REAL UNEMPLOYMENT WILL BE NEAR THE ALLTIME 1930’S DEPRESSION HIGH OF 25% UNEMPLOYED. SADLY, THAT IS NOT THE WORST AS IT GETS MORE DIRE. WE PREDICT REAL, USA UNEMPLOYMENT REACHES 30-40%. IN THE RUST BELT STATES OF MICHIGAN AND OHIO, WHILE 40% IS NOT UNREALISTIC.
　　　　
　　Several European nations have larger, more established social safety nets for the unemployed. In the USA, local, regional and national authorities are not nearly as prepared. The American federal government departments for food stamps and the job of providing welfare provisions will be overwhelmed. This will be a Katrina event for the hungry citizens of the United States. Urban areas will see skyrocketing crime and in parts of some cities, life could become totally uninhabitable.
　　　　
　　 The last report we’ve seen on those receiving food handouts and related welfare amounted to 11 million USA citizens with 700,000 children going hungry each day. We suspect the true amount of those needing food help will rise to 35,000,000 with an untold tragic number of them being little, defenseless children. Governments remain in denial and are not prepared for this national emergency whatsoever. As things worsen, food riots and others with violence aimed at the "haves’ are common.
　　　　
　 　The number of bank failures over the next three years will be in the thousands. In addition, the US Dollar’s valuation could break recent lows near 70.00 on the index, dropping to 46.00 by 2011 or 2012.
　　 Inflation or potentially hyperinflation is quite real as the Federal Reserve and US Treasury strain to print and circulate cash to prod our stalled economy. It is simply not working even with the dramatically lower interest rates of late. Benny Bernanke is out of rate cut running room.
　　　　
　　Consumers are broke and going broker. Households of interrelated families are doubling and tripling up even with several employed members being under one roof. Basic costs of rent, mortgage payments, health care, food, utilities and taxes are too much to bear on stagnant and in some cases falling wages. In some areas of America, there are entire subdivisions of homes totally abandoned or existing with only a hand full of occupants. The millions thrown at lenders for new mortgages are not getting through to buyers, as there are fewer of them. We are witnessing system breakdown.
　　　　
　　Municipalities and states are sinking into a spending, debt-ridden morass. It was reported today that 22 of 50 USA states are in serious budgetary trouble. California is one of those in terrible condition and Michigan is already technically broke as are many of her cities. Detroit will file bankruptcy in 2009 and there will many other surprises as well. There will be a cascade of bond defaults and the outcome will cap the ability of these cities, states and counties to borrow ever more.
　　　　
　 　The shining light through all of this is the faster we find the bottom the faster we can recover. Sadly, the recovery process will take years. Futures and commodities traders should continue to earn steady profits as the stock markets slide into oblivion for years. We see no recovery until 2015.

Text of President Barack Obama's inaugural address on Tuesday, as delivered.

OBAMA: My fellow citizens:

I stand here today humbled by the task before us, grateful for the trust you have bestowed, mindful of the sacrifices borne by our ancestors. I thank President Bush for his service to our nation, as well as the generosity and cooperation he has shown throughout this transition.

Forty-four Americans have now taken the presidential oath. The words have been spoken during rising tides of prosperity and the still waters of peace. Yet, every so often the oath is taken amidst gathering clouds and raging storms. At these moments, America has carried on not simply because of the skill or vision of those in high office, but because we the people have remained faithful to the ideals of our forebears, and true to our founding documents.

So it has been. So it must be with this generation of Americans.

That we are in the midst of crisis is now well understood. Our nation is at war, against a far-reaching network of violence and hatred. Our economy is badly weakened, a consequence of greed and irresponsibility on the part of some, but also our collective failure to make hard choices and prepare the nation for a new age. Homes have been lost; jobs shed; businesses shuttered. Our health care is too costly; our schools fail too many; and each day brings further evidence that the ways we use energy strengthen our adversaries and threaten our planet.

These are the indicators of crisis, subject to data and statistics. Less measurable but no less profound is a sapping of confidence across our land — a nagging fear that America's decline is inevitable, and that the next generation must lower its sights.

Today I say to you that the challenges we face are real. They are serious and they are many. They will not be met easily or in a short span of time. But know this, America — they will be met.

On this day, we gather because we have chosen hope over fear, unity of purpose over conflict and discord.

On this day, we come to proclaim an end to the petty grievances and false promises, the recriminations and worn out dogmas, that for far too long have strangled our politics.

We remain a young nation, but in the words of Scripture, the time has come to set aside childish things. The time has come to reaffirm our enduring spirit; to choose our better history; to carry forward that precious gift, that noble idea, passed on from generation to generation: the God-given promise that all are equal, all are free and all deserve a chance to pursue their full measure of happiness.

In reaffirming the greatness of our nation, we understand that greatness is never a given. It must be earned. Our journey has never been one of shortcuts or settling for less. It has not been the path for the faint-hearted — for those who prefer leisure over work, or seek only the pleasures of riches and fame. Rather, it has been the risk-takers, the doers, the makers of things — some celebrated but more often men and women obscure in their labor, who have carried us up the long, rugged path towards prosperity and freedom.

For us, they packed up their few worldly possessions and traveled across oceans in search of a new life.

For us, they toiled in sweatshops and settled the West; endured the lash of the whip and plowed the hard earth.

For us, they fought and died, in places like Concord and Gettysburg; Normandy and Khe Sanh.

Time and again these men and women struggled and sacrificed and worked till their hands were raw so that we might live a better life. They saw America as bigger than the sum of our individual ambitions; greater than all the differences of birth or wealth or faction.

This is the journey we continue today. We remain the most prosperous, powerful nation on Earth. Our workers are no less productive than when this crisis began. Our minds are no less inventive, our goods and services no less needed than they were last week or last month or last year. Our capacity remains undiminished. But our time of standing pat, of protecting narrow interests and putting off unpleasant decisions — that time has surely passed. Starting today, we must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of remaking America.

For everywhere we look, there is work to be done. The state of the economy calls for action, bold and swift, and we will act — not only to create new jobs, but to lay a new foundation for growth. We will build the roads and bridges, the electric grids and digital lines that feed our commerce and bind us together. We will restore science to its rightful place, and wield technology's wonders to raise health care's quality and lower its cost. We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories. And we will transform our schools and colleges and universities to meet the demands of a new age. All this we can do. All this we will do.

Now, there are some who question the scale of our ambitions — who suggest that our system cannot tolerate too many big plans. Their memories are short. For they have forgotten what this country has already done; what free men and women can achieve when imagination is joined to common purpose, and necessity to courage.

What the cynics fail to understand is that the ground has shifted beneath them — that the stale political arguments that have consumed us for so long no longer apply. The question we ask today is not whether our government is too big or too small, but whether it works — whether it helps families find jobs at a decent wage, care they can afford, a retirement that is dignified. Where the answer is yes, we intend to move forward. Where the answer is no, programs will end. Those of us who manage the public's dollars will be held to account — to spend wisely, reform bad habits, and do our business in the light of day — because only then can we restore the vital trust between a people and their government.

Nor is the question before us whether the market is a force for good or ill. Its power to generate wealth and expand freedom is unmatched, but this crisis has reminded us that without a watchful eye, the market can spin out of control — and that a nation cannot prosper long when it favors only the prosperous. The success of our economy has always depended not just on the size of our gross domestic product, but on the reach of our prosperity; on our ability to extend opportunity to every willing heart — not out of charity, but because it is the surest route to our common good.

As for our common defense, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals. Our founding fathers ... our found fathers, faced with perils we can scarcely imagine, drafted a charter to assure the rule of law and the rights of man, a charter expanded by the blood of generations. Those ideals still light the world, and we will not give them up for expedience's sake. And so to all the other peoples and governments who are watching today, from the grandest capitals to the small village where my father was born: know that America is a friend of each nation and every man, woman, and child who seeks a future of peace and dignity, and that we are ready to lead once more.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

We are the keepers of this legacy. Guided by these principles once more, we can meet those new threats that demand even greater effort — even greater cooperation and understanding between nations. We will begin to responsibly leave Iraq to its people, and forge a hard-earned peace in Afghanistan. With old friends and former foes, we will work tirelessly to lessen the nuclear threat, and roll back the specter of a warming planet. We will not apologize for our way of life, nor will we waver in its defense, and for those who seek to advance their aims by inducing terror and slaughtering innocents, we say to you now that our spirit is stronger and cannot be broken; you cannot outlast us, and we will defeat you.

For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness. We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus — and non-believers. We are shaped by every language and culture, drawn from every end of this Earth; and because we have tasted the bitter swill of civil war and segregation, and emerged from that dark chapter stronger and more united, we cannot help but believe that the old hatreds shall someday pass; that the lines of tribe shall soon dissolve; that as the world grows smaller, our common humanity shall reveal itself; and that America must play its role in ushering in a new era of peace.

To the Muslim world, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect. To those leaders around the globe who seek to sow conflict, or blame their society's ills on the West — know that your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you destroy. To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history; but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.

To the people of poor nations, we pledge to work alongside you to make your farms flourish and let clean waters flow; to nourish starved bodies and feed hungry minds. And to those nations like ours that enjoy relative plenty, we say we can no longer afford indifference to the suffering outside our borders; nor can we consume the world's resources without regard to effect. For the world has changed, and we must change with it.

As we consider the road that unfolds before us, we remember with humble gratitude those brave Americans who, at this very hour, patrol far-off deserts and distant mountains. They have something to tell us, just as the fallen heroes who lie in Arlington whisper through the ages. We honor them not only because they are guardians of our liberty, but because they embody the spirit of service; a willingness to find meaning in something greater than themselves. And yet, at this moment — a moment that will define a generation — it is precisely this spirit that must inhabit us all.

For as much as government can do and must do, it is ultimately the faith and determination of the American people upon which this nation relies. It is the kindness to take in a stranger when the levees break, the selflessness of workers who would rather cut their hours than see a friend lose their job which sees us through our darkest hours. It is the firefighter's courage to storm a stairway filled with smoke, but also a parent's willingness to nurture a child, that finally decides our fate.

Our challenges may be new. The instruments with which we meet them may be new. But those values upon which our success depends — hard work and honesty, courage and fair play, tolerance and curiosity, loyalty and patriotism — these things are old. These things are true. They have been the quiet force of progress throughout our history. What is demanded then is a return to these truths. What is required of us now is a new era of responsibility — a recognition, on the part of every American, that we have duties to ourselves, our nation, and the world, duties that we do not grudgingly accept but rather seize gladly, firm in the knowledge that there is nothing so satisfying to the spirit, so defining of our character, than giving our all to a difficult task.

This is the price and the promise of citizenship.

This is the source of our confidence — the knowledge that God calls on us to shape an uncertain destiny.

This is the meaning of our liberty and our creed — why men and women and children of every race and every faith can join in celebration across this magnificent Mall, and why a man whose father less than sixty years ago might not have been served at a local restaurant can now stand before you to take a most sacred oath.

So let us mark this day with remembrance, of who we are and how far we have traveled. In the year of America's birth, in the coldest of months, a small band of patriots huddled by dying campfires on the shores of an icy river. The capital was abandoned. The enemy was advancing. The snow was stained with blood. At a moment when the outcome of our revolution was most in doubt, the father of our nation ordered these words be read to the people:

"Let it be told to the future world ... that in the depth of winter, when nothing but hope and virtue could survive...that the city and the country, alarmed at one common danger, came forth to meet (it)."

America, in the face of our common dangers, in this winter of our hardship, let us remember these timeless words. With hope and virtue, let us brave once more the icy currents, and endure what storms may come. Let it be said by our children's children that when we were tested we refused to let this journey end, that we did not turn back nor did we falter; and with eyes fixed on the horizon and God's grace upon us, we carried forth that great gift of freedom and delivered it safely to future generations. Thank you. God bless you. And God bless the United States of America

沃尔玛是全球第一个发射物流通信卫星的企业，物流通信卫星使得沃尔玛产生了跳跃性的发展，很快就超过了美国零售业的龙头??凯玛特和西尔斯。沃尔玛从乡村起家，而凯玛特和西尔斯在战略上以大中小城市为主。沃尔玛通过便捷的信息技术急起直追，终于获得了成功。  

    建立全球第一个物流数据的处理中心沃尔玛在全球第一个实现集团内部24小时计算机物流网络化监控，使采购库存、订货、配送和销售一体化。例如，顾客到沃尔 玛店里购物，然后通过POS机打印发票，与此同时负责生产计划、采购计划的人以及供应商的电脑上就会同时显示信息，各个环节就会通过信息及时完成本职工 作，从而减少了很多不必要的时间浪费，加快了物流的循环。

    物流如何借助IT

    沃尔玛物流如何借助信息技术20世纪70年代沃尔玛建立了物流的信息系统MIS (management information system)，也叫管理信息系统，这个系统负责处理系统报表，加快了运作速度。80年代与休斯公司合作发射物流通讯卫星，1983年的时候采用了POS 机，全称Point Of Sale，就是销售始点数据系统。1985年建立了EDI，即电子数据交换系统，进行无纸化作业，所有信息全部在电脑上运作。1986年的时候它又建立了 QR，称为快速反应机制，对市场快速拉动需求。凭借这些信息技术，沃尔玛如虎添翼，取得了长足的发展。

    物流使用的IT手段

    沃尔玛物流应用的信息技术：

    射频技术/RF（Radio Frenquency），在日常的运作过程中可以跟条形码结合起来应用。

    便携式数据终端设备/PDF。传统的方式到货以后要打电话、发E-mail或者发报表，通过便携式数据终端设备可以直接查询货物情况。

    物流条形码/BC。这里要注意物流条形码与商品条形码的区别。

    神奇的配送中心

    沃尔玛如何建立配送中心

    配送中心是设立在100多家零售店的中央位置，也就是配送中心设立在销售主市场。这使得一个配送中心可以满足100多个附近周边城市的销售网点的需求。另外运输的半径基本上比较短，比较均匀。

    以320公里为一个商圈建立一个配送中心。沃尔玛配送中心采用的作业方式。

    一端为装货月台, 另一端为卸货月台。配送中心就是一个大型的仓库，但是概念上与仓库有所区别。配送中心的一端是装货的月台，另外一端是卸货的月台，两项作业分开。看似与装卸一起的方式没有什么区别，但是运作效率由此提高很多。

    交叉配送CD(Cross Docking)。交叉配送的作业方式非常独特，而且效率极高，进货时直接装车出货, 没有入库储存与分拣作业, 降低了成本，加速了流通。

    800名员工24小时倒班装卸搬运配送。沃尔玛的工人的工资并不高，因为这些工人基本上是初中生和高中生，只是经过了沃尔玛的特别培训。

    商品在配送中心停留不超过48小时。沃尔玛要卖的产品有几万个品种，吃、穿、住、用、行各方面都有。尤其像食品、快速消费品这些商品的停留时间直接影响到使用。

    沃尔玛如何不断完善其配送中心的组织结构

    每家店每天送1次货(竞争对手每5天1次)。至少一天送货一次意味着可以减少商店或者零售店里的库存。这就使得零售场地和人力管理成本都大大降低。要达到这样的目标就要通过不断的完善组织结构，使得建立一种运作模式能够满足这样的需求。

    1990年的时候在全球有14个配送中心，发展到2001年一共建立了70个配送中心。沃尔玛作为世界500强企业，到现在为止它只在几个国家运作，只在 它看准有发展的地区经营，沃尔玛在经营方面十分谨慎，在这样的情况下发展到70个，说明它的物流配送中心的组织结构调整做得比较到位。

    配送成本占销售额2%, 是竞争对手的50%(而对手只有50%货物是集中配送)。沃尔玛的配送成本占它销售额的2%，而一般来说物流成本占整个销售额一般都要达到10%左右，有 些食品行业甚至达到20%或者30%。沃尔玛始终如一的思想就是要把最好的东西用最低的价格卖给消费者，这也是它成功的所在。另外竞争对手一般只有50% 的货物进行集中配送，而沃尔玛百分之九十几是进行集中配送的，只有少数可以从加工厂直接送到店里去，这样成本与对手就相差很多了

第一、为什么要有海外代理  

　　这要从国际货运代理的定义谈起。在FIATA(国际货代协会)的经典定义中，“货运代理服务于国际贸易 流程，保证将货物从起运地送达目的地的实体”。中国作为“世界工厂”的现实存在及面对“世界买家”的缤纷需求，都迫使国内的货运代理必需提供从启运港（中 国）到目的港（海外）的物流服务。就这个角度而言，没有海外代理，并不能成为国际货运企业。  

　　现实中，货运代理是服务国际贸易的其 中一个环节，在贸易流当中承担物流的角色。因此，国际贸易的交易条款（INCO TERMS）也成为国际货运的“圣经”。笔者2006年在孟加拉的吉大港 拜访当地货代协会的主席，也是当地海运学校的教授Mr. Jasim U. Ahmed。 他直接告诉本人，离开交易条款而谈的国际货运都是一场笑话。这 意味着，如果没有海外代理，一个货运公司可以做的只有本地的拖车、报关、派送服务，而在交易条款当中从E组、F组、C组及D组当中的大部分业务，甚至包括 进口业务都是没有能力进行的。在右图当中，整个贸易交易条款链条就是物流运输链条，您能在当中的深度及广度，决定了利润的厚度。如果没有海外代理，货运企 业的生命力是脆弱的，同时，面对占据国内75%的FOB货运市场，也只能“望洋兴叹”。  

　　思路决定出路，能走多远，能不能获取 FOB货、代理制定货、进口货正在成为整个货运市场的发展重点。招募“海外代理经理”、“海外代理业务员”也成为大部分企业的招聘的首选。从这个角度看， 如果没有海外代理，在国际物流上还有出路吗？笔者曾访谈过一些从事报关、拖车业务出身的货运企业负责人，不少人认为没有海外代理一样可以做国际物流，但愿 这种思维在所有的周刊读者中不要重现，这或许在特定的年代存在发展的空间，但在目前国际化的时代，还有生命力吗。  

　　第二、海外代理的作用  

　　谈到海外代理的作用，就必须回归到“圣经”-国际贸易交易条款（INCO TERMS）中。我们将从交易条款中选择重要的、普遍的交易条款，并阐述海外代理的作用。  

　　E组/ EXW (工厂/货主仓库交货)  

　　该组条款下，业务由买家指定，海外代理负责全程的物流项目，其中包括下列的所有服务范围：  

　 　在实际运作中，此类货物往往集中在印巴航线。由于普通的货运代理无法形成有效的竞争优势，无法获取海外客户的物流运输业务，印巴当地的代理往往从EXW 条款下手，针对在顺德家具、佛山陶瓷制品以及东莞玩具的进口商等进行营销，在全程物流当中为节约客户成本，从而获得业务。  

　　F组/ FCA/FAS/FOB （货交承运人、货交船边、货交码头）  

　　该组条款下，业务由买家指定，海外代理负责货物交接点以后的延伸物流服务，这是国内目前最常见的交易条款，其中包括下列的服务范围  

　　实务中，笔者2006年初在美国西雅图联合当时的代理一起拜访客户，他们销售客的卖点相当简单但直接有效。  

　　一、费用比中国的C&F合约低； 二、货权控制在海外客户手上；  

　 　事实上，进出口货量的不平衡及自身业绩考虑，国外的船运公司在FOB协约上的空间确实比较大。而根据国际贸易交易条款，货权的控制确实在海外买家手 上, “买方压力”的往往迫使国内供应商接受FOB条款，并与其指定的货运企业进行业务衔接。在当中，海外代理实际承担的是“FOB代理人”的角色，即买 家指定承运人（实际船运公司）的职能由海外代理执行。  

　　C组/CFR/CIF/CIP/CPT （运费预付、运费加保险、运费付至…、运费及保险付至…）  

　　此组业务占据25%的市场份额，也是本地货运企业重点发展的业务。但在此类业务当中，海外代理的作用也是相当明显。主要体现在：  

　 　具体业务当中，如果没有海外代理，目的港的延伸服务不存在，目的港到付业务不可行，双方客户维护不可能。即使是普通的CFR（俗称C&F）业 务，没有海外代理，基本无法控制国内供应商的货权，而只能被动的委托船运公司代理进行，这对货运企业是没有帮助，也没有后续发展可能的。  

　　D组/DDU/DDP (目的港关税非预付、目的港关税预付)  

　　此组业务有国内货运企业主导，海外代理作为配合。服务的范围包括：  

　　此类业务相对其他组别而言，成本高（涉及目的港延伸及关税事宜）但利润相对较大。在美国航线的电子货物运输当中，经常可以见到此类条款。而如果没有海外代理的存在，此类业务无法开展。  

　　综上所述，在国际贸易条款当中，由于海外代理承担着50%以上的服务范围，在没有海外代理的情况下，国际物流不能实现。同时，中国正在成为“买家”的角色也注定了没有海外代理，无法处理进口货物的命运。  

　　作为本期的结语，海外代理的作用不应当是被动的需要，而应该成为发展的必须，我们难以想象一间没有海外代理或者借用海外代理的货运企业，能够在目前的局面下壮大。如果整个国家都开始走出去，你的客户都开始做海外营销，而我们却固步自封，或许不久的将来，便会被抛弃
http://www.sire.com.cn/szhy5/huoyun1759.htm

1918年，在短短的10个月中，全球至少有5000万人死于流感（有科学家认为，这次流感的病原是禽流感）。如今，如果不是禽流感的形势紧迫，这段历史也许不容易被人们想起。在那次灾难的很多幸存者的记忆中，这段经历也只剩下些许碎片。 

“神秘杀手”现身兵营 
   

    1918年3月11日上午，在美国堪萨斯的一座兵营里，一个士兵突然发烧，喉咙也疼起来，他头晕目眩，急忙到医务室看病。一会儿，另一个士兵也出现了同样 的症状。几分钟后，十几个士兵到医务室就诊……中午，500多个士兵病倒了，谁也说不清这是怎么回事。有人说，可能是因为在兵营附近焚烧了一堆粪肥，黑烟 和恶臭把人熏倒了。 
   

    当日，共有近千名士兵集体发病，其中48人死在兵营里，他们死于同一症状：急性肺炎。 
   

    尸体解剖显示，死者的肺严重肿大，灌满了黏液，黏液呈浅蓝色。当时，美国正准备同德国开战，因此有人怀疑，是德国人投下了细菌武器。经过医生的努力，最终 确定，罪大恶极的杀手是一种流感（当时还没有病毒的概念，人类认识病毒是在发明了电子显微镜之后）。几天后，在马萨诸塞州的小镇昆西，3个老百姓染上了同 样的流感；不久，纽约、波士顿和其他东部城镇都相继出现了流感病人；病人人数开始猛增，美国中西部地区也出现了疫情。 

流感肆虐  官员粉饰太平 
   

    形势非常严峻，但一些城市的官员还在粉饰太平。时任纽约市卫生专员的卡普兰在公开场合表示：本市不会发生疫情，请市民不必担心。 
   

    各地政府的工作一切照旧，依然在为美国参加第一次世界大战而不断征兵。学校、市政厅、邮局……到处都成了征兵站，刚刚招募来的新兵挤在一起，给病毒传播提 供了机会。最典型的是费城，有一天，20万人挤在一条马路上，他们手挽手，高唱着爱国歌曲行进……几天后，流感在费城迅速蔓延，但并没有引起人们的警 觉。  
   

    1918年夏，美国投入了第一次世界大战，流感也和美国士兵一起漂洋过海，很快，英国人、法国人、德国人、西班牙人都病倒了。随着疫情的扩散，病毒也在进化，流感的威力越来越大。很多人不知道流感从何而来，有人将这次流感称为“西班牙流感”。 

邮递员和信带来病毒 
   

    波士顿的医院爆满，到处都躺着从战场回来的年轻军人，他们一个个面色铁青，艰难地咳嗽，吐出一口口带血的浓痰。到了10月，波士顿、费城和纽约等地都暴发了大规模的流感疫情，每天都有数百人死亡，纽约市更是创下了一天内死亡851人的纪录。 
   

    幸存者瑞尔回忆说：“当时我们住在乡下，大家选我父亲当卫生官，在瘟疫发生前我们这里从来没有卫生官。我看到父亲写了很大的牌子放在小镇的路口：此处已隔 离，请不要进来。虽然没有外人进来，但流感还是防不胜防，因为邮递员和邮件会把病毒带进来。当时我父亲最担心的就是我们社区中的印第安人，如果一个印第安 人死了，他的家人和好友要围在一起又唱又跳一个通宵，这样会导致更严重的传染……大约一半印第安人在流感中死去。” 

棺材成了紧俏货 
   

    整个9月，美国有1.2万人死亡。此后，美国人都戴上了口罩，国会也拨款100万美元用于开发疫苗。很快，1.8万人接种了新开发出的疫苗，但疫苗根本不 起作用，人们还是一个接一个地倒下。仓皇失措的人们将希望寄托于宗教，然而在牧师的祈祷声中，就有虔诚的信徒倒地。 
   

    在10月份的31天中，美国共有19.5万流感患者死亡。由于要挖的坟墓太多，挖掘机必须昼夜不停地工作。幸存者萨多回忆说：“我叔叔当时做棺材生意。棺材成了紧俏货，但他并不因此而高兴。死去的人里面也包括我们的亲朋好友。” 

人们害怕眼神也会传播流感 
   

    幸存者唐克尔回忆说：“在瘟疫中，人情开始变得冷漠起来。人们见面不打招呼，甚至害怕传递眼神也会传播流感。瘟疫破坏了每个人的生活，有的人甚至连妻子、 孩子、父母都想不要。如果瘟疫持续的时间再长一点儿，死亡的人数再多一点儿，可能就会出现无数家庭解体，社会动荡，因为苗头已经显现——在旧金山，一名卫 生官员开枪射杀了一个不愿意戴口罩的男子；在芝加哥，一名恐惧到极点的工人高喊‘让我用自己的方式保护家人’，说完就用锋利的刀片割开了一家5口人的喉 咙。” 
   

    世界末日似乎已经来临，这时，奇迹发生了！瘟疫的势头在11月初突然减弱，在一些大城市，每周的发病率下降到50人以下。人们开始从紧闭的门窗中探出头 来，生活慢慢恢复了往日的平静。此时，另一大喜讯传来，第一次世界大战正式结束。为了庆祝这两大喜讯，未爆发疫情的旧金山市民走上街头大游行。然而几天 后，疫情在旧金山大爆发，2000多人死亡。12月份，5000多名旧金山市的市民感染了流感，但是到了月底，疫情开始减弱，最后竟神秘地消失了

禽流感爆发的“循环论”及其时间规律

[ 2006-4-23 7:13:00 | By: 杨学祥 ]

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关注太阳黑子低值：
——大流感很可能就在最近几年内到来
作者：杨学祥，杨冬红
关键字：大流感，循环论，太阳黑子，低温冷害，厄尔尼诺，拉尼娜，拉马德雷
    据 云南天文台太阳活动预报组2006年4月17日的观测报告，3月份的太阳活动处于很低到低水平。国际黑子相对数月平均值为10.8, Penticton 的10.7cm射电流量月平均值为75.5 SFU。全月未观测到X级和M级的x射线耀斑，也未观测到10MeV质子事件或10MeV质子流量增强，只观 测到6个低水平的C级和70个B级x射线耀斑。此外，由于冕洞高速太阳风的影响，还观测到几次小的地磁暴。太阳黑子低值与禽流感爆发密切相关，1889、 1900、1977年3次禽流感爆发都发生在太阳黑子低值期。

    据阎朝武的研究，20世纪以来，全球共爆发了4次大流感，第一次发生在1918-1919年，由H1N1亚型引起的“西班牙流感”，死亡人数超过 2000万。此后，以每10-20年为间隔，又爆发了3次大流感，即：1957-1958年由H2N2 亚型引起的“亚洲流感”；1968-1969年由 H3N2 引起的“香港流感”；1977年重现由H1N1引起的“俄国流感”。形成一次大流感的流感病毒株必须要有对该亚型缺乏免疫力的人群存在。 1918、1957、1968年的大流感正因为有新的HA基因出现，才引起大流行。血清学与病毒学的许多证据表明，自1889年至今，甲型流感病毒仅有3 种亚型在人群中间隔轮流出现引起流行：1889年H2；1900年H3；1918年H1；1957年H2重现；1968年H3重现；1977年H1重现。 于是有人提出了大流感病毒亚型的循环学说，认为H2亚型很可能在下一次大流感中卷土重来。根据大流感循环学说，下次大流感的毒株可能是H2 亚型，H7可 以感染人，也有引起大流感的潜在能力，引起香港H5N1和H9N1事件的这两株流感病毒一旦发生突变，也都有引起大流感的潜力。1997年和1999年接 连发生在我国香港的H5N1 和H9N2 亚型禽流感事件预示着下一次大流感正一步步向我们逼近[1]。

    阎朝武同时指出，虽然我们无法预测下一次大流感爆发的准确时间，且前几次大流感爆发的时间间隔也并不一致，但有一点可以肯定，大流感一定会到来，并且很可能就在最近几年内。显然，大流感爆发的时间规律既不清楚也不准确。

    最近研究发现，大流感发生的时间具有双重周期规律：大流感爆发成群发状态，两次群发期之间相隔30-40年，群发期内每隔10年爆发一次。自 1888年以来，已发生两次群发时期。第一次群发期有三次大流感爆发：1889-1890年、1899-1900年（弱）和1918-1919年，处于 1890-1924年的拉马德雷冷位相时期；第二次群发期也有三次大流感爆发：1957-1958、1968-1969和1977年，处于 1947-1976年拉马德雷冷位相时期。2000年又进入拉马德雷冷位相时期，目前面临第三次群发[2，3]。

    大流感群发在拉马德雷冷位相时期，中间间隔30年左右的拉马德雷暖位相时期，1918年到1957年相隔39年，这与拉马德雷冷暖位相周期变化大 致相当。拉马德雷冷位相对应全球气候低温期，拉马德雷暖位相对应全球气候温暖期[2，3]。据对1957年和1968年的大流感毒株分析，它们都源自禽流 感病毒与人流感病毒的基因组合。目前较统一的观点是，人类甲型流感病毒都直接或通过基因重组间接来自禽流感病毒[1]。禽流感病毒对热比较敏感，在56摄 氏度下加热30分钟、60摄氏度下加热10分钟，65—70摄氏度下加热数分钟，流感病毒即丧失活性。直射阳光下40—48小时也可灭活该病毒，如果用紫 外线直接照射，可迅速破坏其传染性。紫外线直射可依次破坏其感染力、血凝素活性和神经氨酸酶活性。但病毒对低温抵抗力较强，在有甘油保护的情况下可保持活 力1年以上[4]。由此看来，拉马德雷冷位相时期的低温是禽流感群发在其中的主要原因。这也是自1977年以来，禽流感没有爆发的原因[2]。

    近期研究发现，1889-1890年是太阳黑子活动低值期（1889年为6.3；1890 年为7.1），1900年是太阳黑子活动次低值期 （1900年为 9.5；1901年为 2.7；1902年为 5.0），1918-1919年为太阳黑子活动次高值期（1917年为 103.9；1918年为80.6；1919年为63.6），1957-1958年为太阳黑子活动最高值期（1957年为190.2；1958年为 184.8），1968-1969年为太阳黑子活动最高值期（1968年为105.9；1969年为105.5），1977年为太阳黑子活动次低值期 （1976年为12.6；1977年为27.5），1997年为太阳黑子活动次低值期（1996年为9.6； 1997年为38）。1918-1919年 的禽流感病毒来得快，去得也快，似乎是随时间而消逝。这显然是受到某种环境因素杀伤的结果，与太阳黑子活动的高、低值对应，表明与太阳射线和宇宙射线有关 [2，3，5]。

    太阳黑子活动周期为9-13年，平均为11年，在拉马德雷冷位相时期共有6次。这是群发期内禽流感爆发的最多次数。由谷年m到峰年M约4年，由峰 年M到谷年m约7年。前者时间较短，没有给禽流感病毒充分的演化突变时间（见下段文字中的原因），所以，禽流感只能发生在M到M，m到m，或M到m，间隔 7到13年。这是禽流感群发期内每隔10年爆发一次的原因。

    禽流感爆发的约十年周期是可间断的，尽管在1947-1976年拉马德雷冷位相时期的1957-1958年、1968-1969年、1977年禽 流感爆发近似符合10年周期，但在1890-1924年拉马德雷冷位相时期的1889-1890年、1899-1900年、1918-1919年禽流感爆 发却不完全符合于10年的周期。后两次相隔时间为18年。认真分析其产生的原因，可以看到不同因素对禽流感爆发的控制作用[2，3]。

    禽流感一定发生在拉马德雷冷位相时期的厄尔尼诺年，前两年要发生拉尼娜事件，当年或前后一年要发生严重的低温冷害（如，1957年，1969年，1976年），这些条件也起到严格的限制作用。

    近期研究表明，20世纪以来，4次有相近条件的时期没有爆发禽流感：其一、1903年7月-1903年12月弱拉尼娜（禽流感没有发生的原 因），1904年8月-1906年4月强厄尔尼诺，1905年太阳黑子峰值63.5，1905年东北阶段性冷夏年，禽流感没有发生。其二、1908年4月 -1911年6月强拉尼娜，1911年9月-1912年4月弱厄尔尼诺（禽流感没有发生的原因），1913年10月-1914年4月中厄尔尼诺，1913 年太阳黑子谷值 1.4，东北地区冷夏年没有发生，禽流感没有发生。其三、1947 年太阳黑子峰值151.6，1949年9月-1950年11月中拉尼 娜，1951年6月-1952年2月弱厄尔尼诺，东北地区冷夏年没有发生，禽流感没有发生。其四、1964年4月-1965年1月中拉尼娜，1964太阳 黑子谷值10.2，1965年5月-1966年3月强厄尔尼诺，1965年东北地区阶段性冷夏年（但不是低温冷害年，是禽流感没有发生的原因）。深入研究 它们之间的差别，对禽流感爆发预测意义重大[6]。

1886年6月-1887年6月中拉尼娜，1888年4月-1889年5月强厄尔尼诺，1888年东北地区典型冷夏年，1889 年太阳黑子谷值6.3，1890年进入拉马德雷冷位相时期（流感爆发期），1889-1890年爆发禽流感。

1898年2月-1899年4月中拉尼娜，1899年8月-1900年10月强厄尔尼诺，禽流感爆发（弱，不是大流感）。1901年太阳黑子谷值2.7，1902年东北地区典型冷夏年（这两个条件提前两年就可以达到大流感标准）。

1916年3月-1917年4月中拉尼娜，1917年太阳黑子峰值103.9，1918年东北阶段性冷夏年，1918年5月-1919年9月中厄尔尼诺，1918-1819年禽流感爆发。

1957年4月-1958年8月强厄尔尼诺，1957年东北地区典型冷夏年（同时为东北地区严重低温冷害年），1957年太阳黑子峰值190.2，1957-1958年禽流感爆发。

1967年7月-1968年6月强拉尼娜，1968年12月-1970年1月中厄尔尼诺，1968年太阳黑子峰值105.9，1968-1969年禽流感爆发，1969年东北地区典型冷夏年（同时为东北地区严重低温冷害年）。

1975年5月-1976年2月强拉尼娜，1976年6月-1977年3月厄尔尼诺，1976年东北地区典型冷夏年（同时为东北地区严重低温冷害年），1976年太阳黑子谷值12.6，1977年禽流感爆发。

    我们必须对禽流感爆发的5大特征作更准确的定义：处于拉马德雷冷位相时期，前一年或前两年为中等强度以上的拉尼娜年，前后一年或当年为中国东北地 区冷夏年（20世纪50-70年代同时为严重低温冷害年），当年为中等强度以上的厄尔尼诺年，当年为太阳黑子谷年m或峰年M，m-1年，m+1年或M+1 年。 1889-1890年、1900年、1918-1919年、1957-1958年、1968-1969年和1977年的禽流感爆发都满足这5大条 件，同时，在1890年以来，满足这5大条件的只有以上6次爆发[2，6]。

    2000-2030年为拉马德雷冷位相时期，2006或2007年为太阳黑子谷年，2011年前后为峰年，2018年前后为谷年，2022年前后 为峰年，他们都是禽流感爆发的可能年份。其中，2008，2011，2015，2018年可能为厄尔尼诺年，2006-2007年，2013-2014 年，2016-2017年可能为拉尼娜年。综合考虑这些因素就可以得到较可靠的预测。低温冷害年只能在当年得到确认。拉马德雷冷位相时期的厄尔尼诺年易发 生低温冷害[8，9]。

    2006年-2007年已发生拉尼娜事件，2006或2007年为太阳黑子谷值，2008年预测为厄尔尼诺年，在拉马德雷冷位相时期内的厄尔尼诺年易发生低温冷害。

摘自 楊學祥博客http://blog.gmw.cn/u/466/archives/2006/11214.html

香港灣仔謝斐道313-323號帝成大廈1-2樓正宗香港本店輝哥海鮮火鍋：

香港輝哥的食材，質素沒有可挑剔。
龍蝦刺身不但鮮活，肉是淡玫瑰紅色，非常稀有，來年好兆頭，老夫開心的。
日本牛肉粒是迄今老夫喫到最鮮活，肥美的，其他任何火鍋店的相關産品，除了在東京喫到的神戶牛肉，不能和他相比。
鵝肝鮮嫩，華滋，要暸2份，就著法國pomerol産區的1999chateau gezin,驚嘆世間如此美食。
湯底當然選海底椰，椰汁足料，超讚。
自己帶酒，收60元一瓶。
買單價格相當公道。成3000不到。
問起老闆輝哥，才知道上海輝哥已經不是他們的經營，頂個抬頭而已。
怪不得，其他不說，自己帶酒，開瓶要收200人民幣每瓶，到大陸，就學會搶錢啊？



香港金鐘太古廣場北京樓：
味覺其實和身體感覺一樣，嘗嘗錦衣玉食，打坐參禪，身體就比較能够體會美好事物和食物的細微差別。如天天麻辣到像上刑，把自己的味蕾折磨光光，是不能奢求有美食的體驗的。
北京樓的中菜，就是屬於雅淡清麗的品質，喫貫多數北方菜加鹽不要錢的拉洋車便當，是不可能體會的。
冷菜的齋鴨非常驚艷，是香菇丁和諸多蔬菜丁作的陷料，喫在嘴裏清香無比。
小桂子燒鶏的老嫩正好，配上特製醬料，出奇可口。
蔬菜當然是好的，大陸提供香港蔬菜都有供應控制，好的才運香港，俺們大陸每天喫運剩的。
特別推薦上海糖醋桂魚。糖醋做法，是個江浙人，都會作。正因爲普通，所以才見功夫。
就像直拳，平淡無奇，人人會打。但一拳打倒一堵牆的郭雲深的程度，就是奇迹。
北京樓的上海糖醋桂魚，就是這樣的奇迹。魚炸得剛好，就片幾片最好得側面背部魚肉。糖醋超級美妙，糖和醋比例的超級協調，就像當官得先生，做生意得兒子，那麽樣的相配。
正真的美食，是做家常菜，但是絕世獨立。
北京樓，做到暸。
美食，是用心，誠實努力才可以有所成就。
所以，大陸，沒有



香港佐敦吳松街182號榮國中心1樓極品王海鮮小菜：
山寨民工版香港輝哥。
非常適合朋友酗酒，聚餐。
象鼻蚌非常新鮮。章紅活魚太活，我在喫他肉，它身體，頭還在動，實在不忍，身體頭先去椒鹽，非常鮮美。
日本牛柳粒和黑豚肉稱贊一下。
我自己帶酒，店家不收開瓶費，稱贊一下。
順便批判大陸餐廳，爲何不讓客人自己帶酒，收開瓶費是對的，拒絕客人帶酒，就太强盜了。
還是香港餐廳比較好，最多收點開瓶費，大家開心。